Ngokusho kwe-China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, i-PMI yokukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke ngoMashi 2022 yayingama-54.1%, yehle ngamaphesenti angama-0.8 ukusuka enyangeni edlule kanye namaphesenti angama-3.7 enkathi efanayo ngonyaka odlule.Ngokombono wesifunda esingaphansi, i-PMI yokukhiqiza e-Asia, eYurophu, eMelika nase-Afrika konke kwehle ngamazinga ahlukahlukene uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, futhi i-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-Europe yehle kakhulu.

Izinguquko zenkomba zibonisa ukuthi ngaphansi komthelela okabili wobhubhane kanye nezingxabano zezwe, izinga lokukhula kwemboni yezokukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke lehlile, libhekene nokushaqeka kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla yesikhashana, ukuncipha kwesidingo kanye nokulindela okubuthakathaka.Ngokombono wokuhlinzeka, ukungqubuzana kwezwe kuye kwandisa inkinga yomthelela wokunikezwa kwempahla ekuqaleni eyabangelwa ubhubhane, intengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe ngobuningi ikakhulukazi amandla kanye nokusanhlamvu kukhuphule umfutho wokwehla kwamandla emali, kanye nezingcindezi zezindleko zokuhlinzeka zikhuphukile;izingxabano ze-geopolitical ziholele ekuvinjweni kwezokuthutha zamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokwehla kokusebenza kahle kokuhlinzeka.Ngokombono wesidingo, ukwehla kwe-PMI yokukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke kukhombisa inkinga yokuncishiswa kwesidingo ngokwezinga elithile, ikakhulukazi i-PMI yokukhiqiza e-Asia, eYurophu, eMelika nase-Afrika yehlile, okusho ukuthi inkinga yokuncipha kwesidingo iyinkinga evamile. ukubhekana nezwe ngesikhathi esifushane.Ngokombono wokulindelekile, phezu komthelela ohlangene wobhubhane kanye nezingxabano zezwe, izinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe zehlise izibikezelo zazo zokukhula komnotho zika-2022. Ingqungquthela Yezizwe Ezihlangene Yezohwebo Nentuthuko isanda kukhipha umbiko owehlise ukukhula komnotho emhlabeni wonke kwango-2022. isibikezelo sisuka ku-3.6% siye ku-2.6%.

NgoMashi 2022, i-PMI yezokukhiqiza yase-Afrika yehle ngamaphesenti ama-2 ukusuka enyangeni edlule yafinyelela ku-50.8%, okubonisa ukuthi izinga lokutholwa kabusha kokukhiqizwa kwe-Afrika lehlile ukusuka enyangeni edlule.Umqedazwe we-COVID-19 walethe izinselelo ekuthuthukisweni komnotho wase-Afrika.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukunyuka kwezinga lenzalo ye-Fed nakho kuholele ekuphumeni okuthile.Amanye amazwe ase-Afrika athwale kanzima ukusimamisa uxhaso lwasekhaya ngokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo kanye nezicelo zosizo lwamazwe ngamazwe.

Ukukhiqiza e-Asia kuyaqhubeka nokuhamba kancane, ne-PMI iqhubeka nokwehla kancane

NgoMashi 2022, i-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-Asia yehle ngamaphesenti angama-0.4 ukusuka enyangeni edlule yaya ku-51.2%, ukwehla kancane izinyanga ezine zilandelana, okubonisa ukuthi izinga lokukhula kwemboni yokukhiqiza yase-Asia likhombise ukwehla okuqhubekayo.Ngokombono wamazwe amakhulu, ngenxa yezinto zesikhathi esifushane njengokubhebhetheka kwalolu bhubhane ezindaweni eziningi kanye nezingxabano zezwe, ukulungiswa kwezinga lokukhula kokukhiqizwa eChina kuyisici esiyinhloko sokwehla kwezinga lokukhula kwemboni yokukhiqiza yase-Asia. .Uma sibheke phambili esikhathini esizayo, isisekelo sokusimama komnotho waseShayina asikashintshi, futhi izimboni eziningi ziye zangena kancane kancane enkathini ephakeme yokukhiqiza nokumaketha, futhi kunesikhala sokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo sokuphinde siphinde sibuyele emuva.Ngemizamo edidiyelwe yezinqubomgomo eziningi, umphumela wokusekelwa okuzinzile komnotho uzovela kancane kancane.Ngaphezu kweChina, umthelela walolu bhubhane kwamanye amazwe ase-Asia nawo mkhulu, futhi i-PMI yokukhiqiza eSouth Korea naseVietnam nayo yehle kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule.

Ngaphezu komthelela walolu bhubhane, izingxabano zezwe kanye nengcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali nakho kuyizici ezibalulekile ezikhungethe ukuthuthukiswa kwamazwe asafufusa ase-Asia.Iminotho eminingi yase-Asia ingenisa ingxenye enkulu yamandla nokudla, futhi izingxabano zezwe ziye zandisa ukukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela nokudla, okukhuphule izindleko zokusebenza kweminotho emikhulu yase-Asia.I-Fed isiqale umjikelezo wokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo, futhi kunengozi yokuphuma kwemali emazweni asafufusa.Ukujulisa ukubambisana kwezomnotho, ukukhulisa izithakazelo zezomnotho ezifanayo, kanye nokuthinta amandla amakhulu okukhula kwesifunda kuyisiqondiso semizamo yamazwe ase-Asia yokumelana nokushaqeka kwangaphandle.I-RCEP iphinde yaletha umfutho omusha ekuzinzeni komnotho wase-Asia.

Ingcindezi ephansi embonini yokukhiqiza yaseYurophu iye yavela, futhi i-PMI yehle kakhulu

NgoMashi 2022, i-PMI yokukhiqiza yaseYurophu yayingama-55.3%, yehle ngamaphesenti ayi-1.6 ukusuka enyangeni edlule, futhi ukwehla kwanwetshwa kusukela enyangeni edlule izinyanga ezimbili zilandelana.Ngokombono wamazwe amakhulu, izinga lokukhula kokukhiqizwa emazweni amakhulu njengeJalimane, i-United Kingdom, iFrance ne-Italy liye lehla kakhulu, futhi i-PMI yokukhiqiza yehle kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, i-PMI yokukhiqiza yaseJalimane yehlile. ngephuzu elingaphezu kwephesenti eli-1, kanti i-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-United Kingdom, France kanye ne-Italy yehle ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwama-2.I-PMI yokukhiqiza yaseRussia yehle ngaphansi kwe-45%, ukwehla kwamaphuzu angaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-4.

Ngokombono wezinguquko zenkomba, ngaphansi kwethonya elikabili lezingxabano ze-geopolitical kanye nalolu bhubhane, izinga lokukhula kwemboni yokukhiqiza yase-Europe lehle kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, futhi ingcindezi ephansi inyukile.I-ECB yehlise isibikezelo sokukhula komnotho se-eurozone sango-2022 sisuka kumaphesenti angama-4.2 saya kumaphesenti angama-3.7.Umbiko weNgqungquthela Yezizwe Ezihlangene Yezohwebo Nokuthuthukiswa uveza ukwehla okuphawulekayo kokukhula komnotho ezingxenyeni ezithile zeNtshonalanga Yurophu.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izingxabano zezwe ziye zaholela ekwenyukeni okuphawulekayo kwezingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali eYurophu.NgoFebhuwari 2022, ukwehla kwamandla emali endaweni ye-euro kukhuphuke kwafinyelela kumaphesenti angu-5.9, okuyirekhodi eliphezulu selokhu kwazalwa i-euro.Inqubomgomo ye-ECB “ibhalansi” isishintshe kakhulu ezingozini ezikhuphukayo zokwehla kwamandla emali.I-ECB icabangele ukwenza ngcono inqubomgomo yezimali.

Ukukhula kokukhiqiza emazweni aseMelika kwehlile futhi i-PMI yehlile

NgoMashi 2022, i-PMI Yokukhiqiza emazweni aseMelika yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.8 ukusuka enyangeni edlule yaya ku-56.6%.Idatha evela emazweni amakhulu ibonisa ukuthi i-PMI yokukhiqiza yaseCanada, eBrazil naseMexico ikhuphuke ngamazinga ahlukene uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, kodwa i-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-US yehlile kusukela ngenyanga edlule, ngokuncipha kwephuzu elingaphezu kwephesenti le-1, okuholele ekutheni ukwehla okuphelele kwe-PMI yemboni yokukhiqiza yaseMelika.

Izinguquko zenkomba zibonisa ukuthi ukwehla kwezinga lokukhula kwemboni yezokukhiqiza yase-US uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule kuyisici esiyinhloko sokwehla kwezinga lokukhula kwemboni yokukhiqiza emazweni aseMelika.Umbiko we-ISM ukhombisa ukuthi ngoMashi 2022, i-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-US yehle ngamaphesenti ayi-1.5 ukusuka enyangeni edlule yaya ku-57.1%.Izinkomba ezingaphansi zikhombisa ukuthi izinga lokukhula lokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo kanye nesidingo embonini yokukhiqiza yase-US lehle kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule.Inkomba yokukhiqiza nama-oda amasha yehle ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwama-4.Izinkampani zibika ukuthi umkhakha wezokukhiqiza wase-US ubhekene nesidingo esinenkontileka, ukuvinjwa kwamaketanga okuhlinzeka kwangaphakathi nakwamanye amazwe, ukushoda kwabasebenzi, kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani ezinto ezibonakalayo.Phakathi kwazo, inkinga yokwenyuka kwentengo igqame kakhulu.Ukuhlolwa kwe-Fed engcupheni yokwehla kwamandla emali nakho kuye kwashintsha kancane kancane kusukela “kwesikhashana” kokuqala kuya “kumbono wokwehla kwamandla emali uye wawohloka kakhulu.”Muva nje, i-Federal Reserve yehlise isibikezelo sokukhula komnotho sango-2022, yehlisa kakhulu isibikezelo sayo sokukhula komkhiqizo wasekhaya safinyelela ku-2.8% sisuka ku-4%.

I-Multi-factor superposition, i-PMI yokukhiqiza yaseChina ibuyele emuva ebangeni lokufinyela

Imininingwane ekhishwe yiNational Bureau of Statistics ngoMashi 31 ikhombise ukuthi ngoMashi, inkomba yabaphathi bokuthenga baseChina (PMI) yayingama-49.5%, yehle ngamaphesenti angama-0.7 ukusuka ngenyanga edlule, kanye nezinga lokuchuma kwemboni yokukhiqiza lehla.Ngokukhethekile, ukukhiqizwa kanye nokuphela kwesidingo kuphansi ngesikhathi esisodwa.Inkomba yokukhiqiza kanye nenkomba yama-oda amasha yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.9 namaphesenti angu-1.9 ngokulandelanayo kusukela enyangeni edlule.Ethintwe ukushintshashintsha okubukhali kwakamuva kwamanani entengo yempahla yamazwe ngamazwe nezinye izici, inkomba yentengo yokuthenga kanye nenkomba yentengo yangaphambili yefekthri yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezinkulu ibe ngu-66.1% no-56.7%, ngokulandelana, ephakeme kunamaphesenti angu-6.1 namaphesenti angu-2.6 ngenyanga edlule, kokubili kukhuphuke cishe ukuphakama kwezinyanga ezi-5.Ngaphezu kwalokho, amanye amabhizinisi ahlolisisiwe abike ukuthi ngenxa yomthelela womjikelezo wamanje walolu bhubhane, ukufika kwabasebenzi kwakungenele, izinto zokuthutha kanye nezokuthutha azihambanga kahle, futhi umjikelezo wokulethwa wandiswa.Inkomba yesikhathi sokulethwa kwabahlinzeki bempahla yale nyanga ibingama-46.5%, yehle ngamaphesenti ayi-1.7 ukusuka enyangeni edlule, kanye nokuzinza kochungechunge lokukhiqiza kuthintekile ngezinga elithile.

NgoMashi, i-PMI yokukhiqiza ubuchwepheshe obuphezulu yayingama-50.4%, eyayiphansi kunenyanga edlule, kodwa iqhubekile nokuba sebangeni lokunwetshwa.Inkomba yabasebenzi abakhiqiza ubuchwepheshe obuphezulu kanye nenkomba yokulindela imisebenzi yebhizinisi bekungama-52.0% nama-57.8%, ngokulandelana, ephakeme kunemboni yokukhiqiza iyonke yamaphuzu angama-3.4 namaphesenti angama-2.1.Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi imboni yokukhiqiza yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu inokusimama okuqinile kwentuthuko, futhi amabhizinisi ayaqhubeka nokuba nethemba ngentuthuko yemakethe yesikhathi esizayo.